Rising and Falling ADP
By Steve Schwarz, Fantasy Sports Editor
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - We have still yet to see an NFL training camp open, but already there are a number of significant changes to players' ADP (Average Draft Position).
How does an opinion change without seeing a single exhibition game or even a hard-hitting practice?
The changes come from reading media descriptions of OTAs, interviews with coaches and, unfortunately, police blotters.
An arrest is likely the primary reason Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch has fallen from 11th overall at the end of May to No. 17 today. He was apparently involved in a DUI situation. Given his spotted history, the NFL could come down hard on the talented running back and he could miss a major portion of the fantasy season. Expect his ADP to continue to free fall barring a dismissal of the charges.
We haven't seen a corresponding drop from Dallas wideout Dez Bryant, but its too early to tell if anything will become of the misdemeanor domestic violence dispute of Monday.
Cincinnati running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has seen a 12-position drop in his ADP (from 44 to 56) and it's likely that part of the change is due to a Fox Sports Ohio report by Zac Jackson in which he stated that the Bengals backfield is likely to be "by committee." The dreaded RBBC moniker can drop a tailback's value faster than a twisted ankle.
Another running back brought down by the committee approach is Washington's second-year back Roy Helu. He put up solid fantasy numbers once he got into the lineup full-time in 2011, particularly in PPR leagues, and early mock drafters thought he would be the guy in 2012. But the usual Mike Shanahan shenanigans will make predicting Helu over Tim Hightower or Evan Royster a nightmare.
Arizona Cardinals tailback Beanie Wells has also seen a double-digit loss in ADP and its because of the good news surrounding Ryan Williams. Williams, who was expected to share time with Wells as a rookie, missed all last season after patellar tendon surgery. He's healthy now and Coach Ken Whisenhunt has always preferred a two-back system, so Williams could hold Wells down this year.
Health is the issue in Pittsburgh where SI's Peter King reported in June that starting running back Rashard Mendenhall was "not ready to play football," and would likely miss "at least" the first six games of the season. Mendenhall's ADP has fallen from 107 to 119.
It's not all bad news. There are a number of players jumping up the charts.
Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Titus Young have both taken steps forward. Stafford is up nine spots and Young up 22 slots to No. 98 as recent news has the second-year receiver battling Nate Burleson for the coveted starting position opposite Calvin Johnson.
Forty-Niners newly acquired wideout Randy Moss has flown up the rankings as news out of San Francisco has him being the best wide receiver on the field at the last OTA. Fantasy owners have always loved Moss, just not his attitude towards playing hard on every down. If he's ready to play, he'll be a valuable fantasy asset and his ADP has risen from 100 to 82.
In Atlanta, backup running back Jacquizz Rodgers has jumped 20 spots to No. 128 while starter Michael Turner has fallen another five spots to No. 34. It's apparent that fantasy owners believe the Falcons will be a pass-first offense in 2012-13 in which Rodgers' talents are a better fit than Turner.
An interesting move by Tennessee tight end Jared Cook, up 15 slots, could be an indication that fantasy owners are troubled by Kenny Britt's additional offseason surgery that just came to light in recent days. It's also a signal that fantasy owners aren't worried about the quarterback situation and are comfortable with either Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker under center.
Monitoring ADP is a quick and easy way to see what your competition is thinking, so we will continue to follow ADP changes all the way up to Opening Day.
07/18 14:18:25 ET