Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
Spring training is still a month away and Opening Day 10 weeks from now, but my thoughts are already into baseball. Yesterday we looked at five players who would be undervalued based on their 2010 performances, today we head in the other direction.
Below are some of my initial impressions on who will be overvalued on Draft Day 2011.
Jose Bautista - Really, who here thinks Bautista will have another 54 home run, .995 OPS season, or anything even remotely close to it? Here is a guy who in six previous seasons never hit more than 16 homers in a year. His best OPS heading into last year was .757. If you look up "career year" in the dictionary, you will see his name and picture. He's being drafted in the middle of the third round (ADP 31), but if he doesn't hit you a lot of home runs, he has little value because he is a one-dimensional fantasy player. I'm thinking Brady Anderson circa 1996 and 1997.
Adrian Beltre - Beltre has played major league baseball for 13 seasons, but he's only starred in two of them - 2004 and 2010. Not coincidentally, they were both contract years. Having signed a five-year deal this past offseason, I wouldn't expect another big year out of him until 2015 and I certainly don't want to spend a fourth-round pick (ADP 40) on a .275 hitter who averages 70 runs scored, 21 homers, 77 RBIs and eight steals.
Paul Konerko - Unlike Bautista, at least Konerko has done it consistently in the past. But the White Sox first baseman/DH had his best season in five years and at 35 years old it hard to see him putting back-to-back "monster" seasons. The last time he put two great seasons together he was 29/30 years old. He has no speed, has never scored 100 runs and is more likely to hit .275 than .312. I would like him a lot better if he was hitting in front of newly acquired Adam Dunn instead of behind him. He won't kill you, but he's not a fifth-round selection (ADP 60).
Kelly Johnson - Johnson posted the best season of his career, but in truth he had two hot months (April, September) which carried him. From May until the end of August he couldn't buy a hit or a home run. I know second base isn't a deep position, but there is no way Johnson should be a seventh-round pick and the ninth player off the board at the position (ADP 80). The Arizona batting order has plenty of questions throughout, particularly the middle of the order, which is filled with .265 batting streak hitters.
Matt Wieters - I understand why everyone was so excited about the Baltimore Orioles "catcher-of-the-future" in 2009. The media "hype-machine" was working full force, calling him the next Joe Mauer. But after seeing him for a year and a half, we should all be convinced that he's nowhere near that level. In fact, two rookie catchers from last year, Buster Posey and Carlos Santana are far better fantasy selections. Yet Wieters is being picked as the sixth catcher off the board in the ninth round (ADP 105). Take off those rose- colored glasses and look at the facts. He batted .249 last season with 11 homers and 55 RBIs in 502 at-bats. The Phillies catcher, Carlos Ruiz, hit .302 last season with eight homers and 52 RBIs in just 371 at-bats and he's going in the 18th round (ADP 220). Bypass Wieters and select Ruiz nine round later and your lineup will be much stronger.