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Beware of making snap judgements

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Know this - Mike Tolbert will not score three touchdowns every week, Ryan Fitzpatrick will not throw four touchdown passes from Weeks 2 through 17, Tom Brady will not throw for 500 yards every week and Chris Johnson will run for more than 24 yards in most weeks.

Aristotle once said "One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day."

Translation - one event does not necessarily indicate a trend.

For fantasy owners this means that one great game doesn't mean the player will perform at a high level for all 16 games, nor does one bad game mean its time to trade a guy for "peanuts."

I've separated some of the first week's more interesting results into four categories - players who will continue to play above expectations, players who will drop to their normal level of production, players who will rise to their normal level of production and players who will continue to perform below expectations.

Maintain high level of production

Matthew Stafford - Stafford had a very good preseason and it carried over into the opener against Tampa Bay. He'll face a Kansas City team which gave up four touchdown passes to Fitzgerald. Stafford has the receivers to continue to play above his seventh-round Draft Day level ( ranked 80).

Beanie Wells - Wells was solid in a game that featured 700 yards passing. He was the balance that kept the Panthers defensive line from getting to Kevin Kolb. His 90 yards rushing, sad to say, is the second-best total of his career. He'll face a Washington Redskins team that was untested in the first week after getting ahead of the Giants and forcing them to throw. The Redskins finished 26th against the run in 2010. With little in the way of depth behind Wells, he should put up similar statistics this week.

Steve Smith (CAR) - No, he won't post 178 yards and two scores against the Green Bay Packers, but he was getting very little respect on Draft Day due to fears about the quarterback situation. With Cam Newton looking solid in Week 1, Smith's fantasy value should stay high, well above his No.83 ranking.


Cam Newton - Newton did show a lot of ability against the Cardinals, but he'll be facing the defending Super Bowl champions this week. Expect confusion, badly thrown passes and an interception or two. While Drew Brees may be able to burn the Packers secondary for 400+ yards, Newton figures to hit for about 250 in Week 2. Don't be blinded by his performance against the weak Arizona defensive backfield.

Cedric Benson - Benson's statistics look very good, but are misleading. He rushed for 49 of his game-high 121 yards in the final three minutes with his team trying to hold a lead. Which means for the first 57 minutes he rushed 20 times for 72 yards or 3.6 ypc. I'm not sure how often the Bengals will have a lead this season. Expect a drop in his numbers despite the fact that Darren McFadden ran for 150 yards against Benson's next opponent - Denver.

Reggie Wayne - The Colts offense was putrid in Week 1 and doesn't figure to get healthy over the next two weeks facing division rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Wayne benefited from a relaxed defense which was up 34-0 when he caught his touchdown pass in garbage time. Unless you think that Kerry Collins will sudden "find it" Wayne will likely struggle to re-produce his Week 1 statistics.


Donovan McNabb - McNabb was certainly ugly in Week 1 going 7-for-15 for all of 39 yards. While he may not be a fantasy star anymore, like the days in Philadelphia, he's not that bad. San Diego kept the ball for 77 offensive plays and 37 minutes. This week he'll be at home against Tampa Bay and should play a lot better. So will Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe. He may still not be ready to start for your fantasy team, but down the road he'll face Arizona and Carolina and could be a viable option.

LeGarrette Blount - Blount was under-utilized last week, getting the call just five times for 15 yards. The Bucs' played from behind for much of the day against Detroit and Blount was not part of the hurry-up offense. Expect Tampa Bay to show a bigger dose of the running game this week against Minnesota and Blount to get the majority of the work.

Percy Harvin - Harvin was a non-factor in Week 1, touching the ball just six times on offense. McNabb targeted him four times all day, of which he caught two for seven yards. Harvin ran the ball four times for 15 yards. His big contribution was taking the opening kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown. There is no way head coach Leslie Frazier ignores Harvin for a second consecutive week.

Continue to produce below expectations

Matt Cassel - Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is gone and the offensive line couldn't pass protect. It led to Cassel throwing almost exclusively short passes. Fourteen of his 22 completions were for six yards-or-less and he totaled just 119 yards passing or 3.3 yard-per-attempt, a horrible number. This week they face Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Shonn Greene - Management keeps telling us how they want to feature Greene, but actions speak louder than words. Greene has carried the ball 13 times or less in five consecutive regular season games and he's only carried the ball 20 times in a game twice last year. It doesn't help that he's averaging just 3.95 ypc over the past five games. Neither of those two stats will help fantasy owners who selected Greene at the start of the third round (ranked 31).

Mike Williams (SEA) - Who is going to get him the ball? In a game the Seahawks were down 16-0 at halftime, you would think their No.1 receiver would be targeted more than five times. Wideout Sidney Rice will be back soon and the situation will get worse, not better.

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at

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