Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
Winning your fantasy is about getting the most out of all your selections. There are three possible results when you draft a player - he's a bargain, he gives you fair market value or he's a disappointment.
Today we will give you seven players who we think won't live up to their Average Draft Position (ADP) and therefore will be a disappointment.
Getting on this list doesn't necessarily mean they are going to have a bad year. Yes, a few won't post quality statistics. Sometimes, however, it simply means fantasy owners' have unrealistic expectations.
Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh - Those fantasy owners who only look at the season-ending statistics (1,273 yards rushing) may miss the boat on Mendenhall. Some statistics are misleading and this is one of them. With Ben Roethlisberger suspended for four games, Mendenhall carried the load for the Steelers offense, averaging 22.3 rushing attempts, 102.8 yards and one touchdown per contest. Then "Big Ben" returned, and for the remainder of the season Mendenhall averaged 19.6 carries and 71.8 yards -- and that included a game against the Buffalo Bills in late November in which he had 36 attempts and 151 yards. As long as Roethlisberger is healthy, Mendenhall's production will be limited and a top-10 draft position (current ADP 9) is too high.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville - Fantasy owners have long memories. Many fondly remember Jones-Drew's 1,391-yard, 15 TD performance in 2009 and think he can recreate those statistics. Maybe if he was healthy, but that isn't the case. Jones-Drew will start the season off with a knee problem and they don't go away. He's about as high-risk a draft pick as it gets in 2011. At the very least you must "handcuff" MJD with Rashad Jennings (ADP 126), but I would recommend avoiding the Jaguars running backs all together.
Darren McFadden, Oakland - McFadden finally played close to a full season last year (13 games) and finished fifth among running backs with 250 fantasy points. But dive deeper into the numbers and you will see that he scored 40% of those points in two monster 50+ point weeks. In the other 11 games he averaged a bit over 13 ppg. If you are in a head-to-head league, that is not the consistency you are looking for in a late-first, early-second round pick.
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis - Manning never misses a game, but the outlook for 2011 is getting more pessimistic by the day. The man who likes to work long hours at practice has yet to take the field and on Wednesday the team signed a veteran quarterback in Kerry Collins. Why select the questionable Manning when you can have a healthy Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Tony Romo or Matt Schaub for about the same price? If Manning misses just two games, is he that much better than the group mentioned above to regain all those lost points?
Greg Jennings, Green Bay - Jennings had an excellent 2010 season (76-1,265-12) but its a matter of supply and demand in Green Bay. The Packers have so many quality receivers that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will need to keep happy that focusing on one wideout won't likely happen. Beside Jennings, the team has James Jones, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson at wide receiver. Jermichael Finley returns at tight and he will demand many more targets than his fill- ins, Andrew Quarless and Donald Lee. Jennings will have a good year, but not a great one and as a late second-round pick (ADP 20) is too expensive.
Ryan Mathews, San Diego - Fantasy owners are all over the board with Mathews. He's been drafted as high as the end of the second round and as low as a sixth-round selection. However, even as a fourth-round pick (ADP 45), he's a bit pricey. The Chargers are very happy with the work of Mike Tolbert and at 243 lbs is the perfect man inside the 10-yard line. He scored 11 times last year, all from eight yards-or-less and he'll play the same role in 2011. Nothing is worse than your running back carrying the load from 20-yard line to 20-yard line and then his replacement gets the touchdown. At No.45 you could have Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells who looks like he'll get a shot at being a "workhorse" in Arizona, now that Ryan Williams is out for the season.
Cedric Benson, Cincinnati - With the veteran Carson Palmer at quarterback and quality receivers in Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens as a diversion, Benson could still only manage 3.5 ypc on 321 attempts. This year the passing game will be less of a threat with either rookie Andy Dalton or journeyman Bruce Gradkowski at the helm and a receiving corps of rookie A.J. Green, Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley. The result should be Benson facing eight-man fronts and a reduction in his productivity. Too much for a fifth-round pick who also may be facing a suspension for off-the-field issues.
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