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Significant Changes in ADP

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Average Draft Position (ADP) is the term for where a player is being selected in most fantasy drafts.

But it's not just important to know what a player's current ADP is, it's also significant to know in which direction the number is heading to know what other owners are thinking about his value - whether it's improving or sinking.

For instance, while Albert Pujols has held steady at the top of the charts, last year's No.3 overall selection, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, has dropped 11 positions over the winter after his 30 HR, 125 RBI season.

Meanwhile, Colorado outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has jumped from No.122 in 2010 to No.8 this season after his 34 HR, 117 RBI season. While Gonzalez and Rodriguez had similar output, they are heading in opposite directions as far as fantasy owner thinking.

Below you will find some of the biggest "movers" both up and down.

Movin' on up

Veteran Division

Jose Bautista, Toronto (2011 ADP 36, 2010 ADP 323) - Chicks dig the long ball and apparently so do fantasy owners. Beware, 2010 appears to be a career year, not a permanent change in production level. As a late third-round pick, he might be a disappointment.

Adrian Beltre, Texas (2011 ADP 47, 2010 ADP 156) - Last year in Boston was a contract year for Beltre, and if you look at his past history, he always produces a big season under those conditions. Unfortunately, many fantasy owners will get fooled into thinking he can repeat those numbers in Texas...don't you be one of them.

Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (2011 ADP 57, 2010 ADP 138) - He's played much better in Chicago than in his years in Toronto. It's very possible that Rios will live up to his new and higher expectations.

Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (2011 ADP 87, 2010 ADP 187) - Rasmus was much improved in 2010 (.276, 23 HR, 66 RBI) and is expected to get the much valued No.2 hole in St. Louis...just in front of Pujols. If true, he'll see a lot of hittable fastballs.

Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox (2011 ADP 97, 2010 ADP 267) - While it's unlikely that Konerko can repeat his 2010 production (.312, 39 HR, 111 RBI) he can still put up numbers worthy of a ninth-round selection.

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees (2011 ADP 121, 2010 ADP 321) - It appears that the Yankees will start the season with Gardner leading off and Jeter batting second. That could mean Gardner's runs scored and stolen base totals will shoot through the roof.

Youngster Division

Jason Heyward, Atlanta (2011 ADP 44, 2010 ADP 137) - Even though there were many that didn't know or believe in Heyward at the beginning of last season, every fantasy owners knows his name in 2011. He had a solid fantasy season in 2010 (.277, 18 HR, 72 RBI), but expectations are that he'll be much improved as a sophomore. He certainly has the talent.

Buster Posey, San Francisco (2011 ADP 45, 2010 ADP 416) - Unlike Heyward, not many fantasy owners took a shot on Posey last year because the Giants already had a solid catcher in Bengie Molina behind the plate. After helping his team to a World Championship, plenty is expected of Posey in 2011 as the No.2 catcher off the board.

Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati (2011 ADP 59, 2010 ADP 237) - Stubbs had displayed a bit of his talent in 180 at-bats in 2009, but came into his own last season as a full-time starter. He was one of just seven players with 20 HR and 20 steals and is a solid choice as a fifth-round selection.

Mike Stanton, Florida (2011 ADP 82, 2010 ADP 574) - He hit 22 homers in just 359 at-bats after getting the call up from the minors, which means he could be good for around 35 home runs in 2011. He'll need to cut down on his strikeouts, though -- 123 is simply too many for that number of at-bats.

Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh (2011 ADP 85, 2010 ADP 960) - Alvarez has Stanton- like power as seen from his 16 homers in 347 at-bats. And like Stanton, Alvarez strikes out too much. But when he makes contact, the ball travels a long way.

Neil Walker, Pittsburgh (2011 ADP 129, 2010 ADP 460) - Walker displayed some nice statistics: 12 HR and 66 RBIs to go with a .296 batting average. Particularly at a weak position like second base, Walker could be a bargain in the 13th round.

Droppin' like a rock

Veteran Division

Mark Reynolds, Baltimore (2011 ADP 89, 2010 ADP 36) - Too much was expected after his 44 HR, 102 RBI, 24 SB season of 2009. He's dropped four or five rounds for 2011 and the gamble isn't as large this time around. If he can make contact, he's got the talent to reproduce his numbers of two years ago... but that's a big if.

Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (2011 ADP 103, 2010 ADP 37) - His 2009 season was a career year and fantasy owners paid dearly for believing he would do the same in 2010. Expectations are much lower now and he could be a solid fantasy player at this level.

Bobby Abreu, Anaheim (2011 ADP 118, 2010 ADP 59) - His .255 batting average was the lowest since 1997, but the drop in respect from fantasy owners is just too much. He still hit 20 homers and stole 20-plus bases, and that's a tough combination to find in the 12th round. He's a bargain here.

Derrek Lee, Baltimore (2011 ADP 190, 2010 ADP 49) - Every statistic seems to be in a free fall for Lee and trying to turn it around in a new league is difficult. But dropping to the 16th round is way too low. He could still hit 20 homers and knock in 100 runs this season.

Manny Ramirez, Tampa Bay (2011 ADP 209, 2010 ADP 86) - Ramirez is still a .290 to .300 hitter, but since returning from his drug suspension in 2009, his OPS has seen a huge drop (career OPS .997, 2009 OPS .949, 2010 OPS .869). Gone are the days of 35-45 home runs and gone are the days of high fantasy value.

Lance Berkman, St. Louis (2011 ADP 285, 2010 ADP 83) - Berkman reported to spring training 20 pounds lighter and in better shape, but fantasy owners are obviously skeptical of his ability to play a full season in the Cardinals outfield. Me too.

Youngster Division

Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (2011 ADP 111, 2010 ADP 28) - Expectations were way too high in 2010 after a a great 2009 (.330, 25 HR, 90 RBI), but they're too low this season and Sandoval should be a bargain as a ninth-rounder.

Adam Jones, Baltimore (2011 ADP 154, 2010 ADP 75) - It looks like people have finally decided that Jones is just an average player with the bat and too streaky to leave in the lineup everyday. They could be right.

Nyjer Morgan, Milwaukee (2011 ADP 239, 2010 ADP 144) - Morgan had his shot at a full-time gig in both Pittsburgh and Washington. He'll have to share a position with Carlos Gomez in Milwaukee and won't be fantasy worthy.

Julio Borbon, Texas (2011 ADP 322, 2010 ADP 108) - As a rookie people thought he had 50 SB talent, but he proved last year that it wasn't the case. His career .687 OPS is Juan Pierre-like, but with 30 fewer stolen bases, he's not worth having on your roster.

Chris Coghlan, Florida (2011 ADP 295, 2010 ADP 98) - The 2009 NL Rookie of the Year fell on hard times last season and simply doesn't do enough things to warrant a spot on a fantasy roster.

Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh (2011 ADP 351, 2010 ADP 208) - Jones has power, but he hit the same 21 homers in 2010 as he did in 2009 with 278 more at-bats. He's got to put the bat on the ball more often if he's to have value at a position like first base where everyone can hit the ball. You can pick him up off the waiver wire later in the season if he turns it around.

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at sschwarz@sportsnetwork.com.

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