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What do fantasy owners want out of their top draft picks?
Answer: Performance and predictability.
And what's the one thing fantasy owners have no chance of getting from their choices? That's right - predictability.
It's the human condition. We are not machines and can't perform a task perfectly every single time (even if our boss wishes/demands it). We are also fragile and injuries to our selection or to the players around our choice can cause a great disparity in the final results.
Below you will find the top-10 selections on fantasyfootballcalculator.com in July 2012.
1) Arian Foster, Houston (ADP 1.6)
2) LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia (ADP 2.6)
3) Ray Rice, Baltimore (ADP 2.7)
4) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (ADP 3.6)
5) Ryan Mathews, San Diego (ADP 6.4)
6) Calvin Johnson, Detroit (ADP 6.7)
7) Tom Brady, New England (ADP 6.8)
8) Chris Johnson, Tennessee (ADP 7.5)
9) Drew Brees, New Orleans (ADP 9.2)
10) Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville (ADP 9.4)
There were no problems with the three quarterbacks selected. Brees, Brady and Rodgers finished first, second and fourth, respectively, in fantasy points.
We also had no problem with the selection of record-setting Calvin Johnson. Though he only scored five times, down from 12 in 2010-11 and 16 in 2011-12, his 1,964 receiving yards was 364 yards more than the nearest competitor and he finished 21 points ahead of Chicago Bears wideout Brandon Marshall in my fantasy league.
However, the remainder of the top-five receivers (Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings and Wes Welker) all finished outside the top-five in wideout scoring.
After Megatron, predictability was nowhere in sight.
Still, it was the running back position which caused the most pain and anguish to fantasy owners.
The quartet of McCoy, Mathews, Chris Johnson and Jones-Drew all finished outside the top-10 at their position, and in fact, Johnson's 49th overall finish was the best of this supposedly "elite" group.
Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson (ADP 18.5) was showing all the world how to rehabilitate a major knee injury. He finished second overall, rushing for 2,097 yards and earning 349.4 fantasy points (Brees finished with 349.6).
And two rookies, Doug Martin of Tampa Bay (ADP 41.2) and Alfred Morris of Washington (ADP 200-plus) finished in the top-five along with veteran Marshawn Lynch (17.7).
Again, predictability is an impossibility.
So how will this help you as you make final preparations for your fantasy draft?
Know that you don't have to follow the "crowd" as they are wrong as often as they are right. If you have done your homework, believe in your own analysis over that of others.
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