Dirty Dining

Miller's rising ADP hard to justify
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Right now, it's difficult to tell which is faster: Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller's 40-yard dash time or the rate at which his average draft position (ADP) is rising.

Miller's ADP, courtesy of fantasyfootballcalculator.com, is 28.0, up five picks since July 12.

He's going 19th among running backs, meaning he's being counted on as an RB2 in 10-team leagues.

Miller looks like a lock to be the primary ballcarrier with the Dolphins this season -- his competition, Daniel Thomas, is concussion-prone, fumble-prone and owns a career yards per carry average of 3.5 on 256 rushes -- but early third round seems too high for the second-year back.

Miami's No. 1 back last season, Reggie Bush, carried the ball 227 times; it's doubtful Dolphins coach Joe Philbin will give the 5-foot-10, 218-pound Miller more than that.

The Dolphins didn't use their running backs in the passing game that much last season either -- Bush, who is one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, was targeted just 52 times and finished with 35 catches for 292 yards. Thomas saw an additional 22 targets and caught 15 of them.

Even if Miller stays healthy for the entire season, his best-case scenario is likely 250 touches. Players like rookie Le'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Christopher Ivory of the New York Jets likely will see more than that and are going a round later than Miller.

While Miller only has to beat out Thomas for the job, Bell will have to ascend Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer on the depth chart, but that shouldn't be difficult to accomplish.

Dwyer and Redman failed to make an impact as replacements for the injured Rashard Mendenhall last season, and the Steelers averaged just 3.7 yards per carry on 412 runs.

Bell also has been compared to Matt Forte for his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, so he could have a chance to contribute as a three-down back.

Ivory, meanwhile, landed on a team that gave Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell a combined 386 carries and 66 targets last season and did nothing to improve their passing situation in the offseason.

All three of these guys have an "unknown" element, as they have never been starters in the NFL before, but Bell and Ivory have better value than Miller at their current ADPs.

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Thomas J. Harrigan at tharrigan@sportsnetwork.com.

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