Bad luck Bailey
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Despite it being an ill-fitting moniker for a pitcher, David Bailey Jr. has stuck with the nickname "Homer" to honor his great-grandfather.

This might be the year frustration causes the Cincinnati Reds right-hander to get rid of it.

Bailey has served up a whopping seven home runs in 26 1/3 innings this season, or 2.39 per nine innings.

He has a 6.15 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP so far.

The 27-year-old has just one win even though the Reds have scored 6.8 runs per 27 outs while he has been the pitcher of record and 5.3 runs per game in his starts.

Bailey has one quality start and gave up at least four earned runs in the other four. He hasn't thrown more than six innings in any outing.

It's been pretty bad for Bailey this season no matter how you slice his numbers.

But things are about to get better for the former first-round pick, who had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 417 innings as well as two no-hitters over the previous two seasons.

Bailey's 23.8 strikeout rate (K%) and 6.6 walk rate (BB%) are nearly identical to his 23.4 K% and 6.4 BB% from 2013, and his contact and swing-and-miss rates are both better than last season.

Even though he shares a last name with a brand of Irish liqueur, Bailey has been far from lucky.

The right-hander has allowed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .416, worst in baseball.

The major-league BABIP for pitchers this season is .294, and Bailey's career BABIP is .302.

He's allowed line drives at a rate of 22.9 percent, which is higher than the MLB average of 20 percent, so he deserves a BABIP slightly above .294, but not .416.

As for the homers, he'll have to get those under control before he can see some real improvement in his ERA.

I think he will.

Of his seven longballs permitted, four came against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a game that saw both teams combine for 10 home runs on a wet and windy night at Great American Ballpark.

Two of the shots Bailey gave up were well struck and likely would have gone out on any night, but the other two were definitely wind-assisted.

Bailey's career home-run-per-fly-ball rate (HR/FB) is 11.1 percent, but he's served up a homer on 29.2 percent of his fly balls this season. That rate won't last.

The 27-year-old has a career-low 28.9 percent fly-ball rate and a career-high 48.2 percent ground-ball rate this season, so it's even more peculiar that he's allowed so many home runs.

Bailey has roughly 27 starts remaining for his fortune to turn around and the right-hander is a good buy-low candidate.

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Thomas J. Harrigan at

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