Playing the ADP Movement

Terrell Owens had an ADP of 187.2 in mid-July but as of Monday that number was 83.
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - One of the key uses for the Average Draft Position Rankings is knowing when the other owners are likely to pick a specific player.

For example, if you are a big Peyton Manning fan and want to know if you can wait until the second round to get your favorite quarterback, his ADP says yes, since the latest RapidDraft ADP shows the Indianapolis quarterback with a 32.2 rating.

On the other hand, if you were thinking that you were going to get Houston running back Arian Foster with a late-round pick, those thoughts have been dashed as the season-ending injury to rookie Ben Tate which has put Foster in the driver's seat for the starting job.

Foster's RapidDraft ADP on July 26th was 150.7 but as of yesterday it's up to 77.3. Therefore, if you want to have Foster in your lineup, you will likely have to use a sixth-round pick to get him instead of the 13th rounder you were going to use one month ago.

There are plenty of other "movers" that you should be aware of as we get closer to Draft Day. Below we will list those who are climbing the charts and those who are dropping and therefore can be targeted later than originally expected.

Climbing

Terrell Owens, Cincinnati - Fantasy owners who thought Owens had nothing left in the tank except his television show are re-thinking their position. He and Chad Ochocinco could become a tough duo to cover and veteran quarterback Carson Palmer seems to be adjusting well to his new-found receiving talent. Owens was barely on the fantasy radar in mid-July with an ADP of 187.2 but as of Monday that number was 83.

Bernard Berrian, Minnesota - With the news that Sidney Rice had hip surgery, Berrian figures to be the primary beneficiary. He was slowed by hamstring problems last year, but is apparently healthy. Add in the uncertainty of Percy Harvin's migraine problem and Berrian figures to move way up the rankings this week. He was 141.8 in July but by the end of this week should be around 100 or less. Even with an ADP under 100, he'll be a bargain if he's Favre's No.1 target.

Mike Williams, Tampa Bay - Despite being in a mediocre offense with a slightly injured starting quarterback, the rookie is making headway up the charts. He's listed as the No.1 receiver despite the veterans and a higher drafted (2010 No.39 overall) Arrelious Benn. Williams has moved up 23 points in a month to an ADP of 127.7.

Kyle Orton, Denver - News of Orton signing an extension through the 2011 season should indicate that Orton will be the starter this season or at least as long as the team is in contention for the playoffs. It also looks as if he has found a favorite target in Jabar Gaffney (6-for-98 in Saturday's loss to Detroit). With both Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter hurting, Orton may have to throw more than originally anticipated. He could still be a bargain, you'll just have to "pay" a little more.

Falling

Vincent Jackson, San Diego - If Jackson is traded to Seattle (latest rumor) then the drop in his ranking is warranted. Leaving the "pass-happy" Chargers and Philip Rivers for Seattle would be a blow to Jackson's fantasy value. Add in the suspension and you have a recipe for disaster. Jackson's ADP was 62 last month, over 70 now and he could end up as a eighth-round selection by Draft Day. Considering how good he was in 2009 (68 receptions for 1,167 yards and 9 TDs) that's a huge drop. Don't look at old rankings and select him based on last year's numbers, you can't take him before the eighth or ninth round.

Owen Daniels, Houston - Information leaking out of Houston is that Daniels rehab from ACL surgery took a setback recently. He's scheduled to see Dr. James Andrews this week with the results determining whether he will continue to drop or recover. He was on the way to a top-five season last year before the injury. On the other hand, there are a lot of talented tight ends this year, so if the news isn't good, then there are plenty of other options at tight end.

Julian Edelman, New England - Wes Welker played in the first series in this week's preseason game just seven months after suffering a severe knee injury. Most fantasy owners, me included, never expected him to be back so soon and therefore were high on his replacement Edelman. As long as Welker looks healthy, then Edelman's value will continue to plummet.

Sidney Rice, Minnesota - Rice was a star last season, an All-Pro, and Brett Favre's favorite target. Fantasy owners were ready to target him in 2010 fantasy drafts but that won't happen now with news that he just completed hip surgery that will likely keep him out for at least half the season. Rice's ADP was 19.7 last month, and still 21.2 last week despite the warning signs, but should drop below 100 by Draft Day.



Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at sschwarz@sportsnetwork.com.

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