Beware of making snap judgments
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Know this - Peyton Manning will not throw seven touchdowns every week. Denver tight end Julius Thomas will not haul in 32 touchdown passes this season and the Baltimore Ravens aren't going to give up 784 points.

Aristotle once said, "One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day."

Translation for fantasy owners - one event does not necessarily indicate a season-long trend. One great game doesn't mean the player will perform at a high level for all 16 games, nor does one bad game mean it is time to trade a guy below market value.

I've separated some of the first week's more interesting results into four categories - players who will continue to play above expectations, players who will drop to their normal level of production, players who will rise to their normal level of production and players who will continue to perform below expectations.

Maintain high level of production

Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona - We like what we saw from the Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald combination. We also see the Cardinals still don't have a solid running game, therefor Palmer will be throwing at least 40 times a game week in and week out.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina - Facing a very tough Seattle defense, Williams combined for 100 yards from scrimmage. The only negative was a late-game fumble deep in Seahawks territory. With Jonathan Stewart not eligible to play until Week 7 at the earliest, Williams should continue to get opportunities to perform well.

Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis - We've been on the Cook bandwagon for the entire preseason and he rewarded fantasy owners with a stunning seven-catch, 141-yard, two-touchdown performance. As the Rams' best receiving option, he's going to continue to produce big numbers.

Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco - While we don't expect Anquan Boldin to produce 200-plus yards every Sunday, we think Davis can continue to catch a half-dozen balls a game for close to 100 yards on a weekly basis. Davis said the chemistry with quarterback Colin Kaepernick was on a new level this year and it certainly looked like it on Sunday.

Brian Hartline, WR, Miami - It appears Hartline (9-114-1) is much more in sync with quarterback Ryan Tannehill than newly acquired Mike Wallace (1-15-0). The addition of Wallace also means Hartline gets to go against the opposition's No. 2 cornerback. Until that changes, Hartline is the better receiving option.

Rise

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina - Fortunately, Newton doesn't have to play against the Seattle defense every week (16-of-23 for 125 yards, 1 TD; 38 yards rushing). In fact, he should get healthy next week against Buffalo, so if his current fantasy owner is singing the blues, send him a trade offer sheet.

David Wilson, RB, New York Giants - Sure, he's currently stuck in coach Tom Coughlin's doghouse ... again. But the coach doesn't have many options. Da'Rel Scott filled in on Sunday night, but if the Giants want a dynamic running game, it will be behind Wilson. In 2012, Wilson also lost a fumble on opening day and was benched, but he didn't lose another one all season. Fantasy owners hope he's learned his lesson for 2013.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle - The Seahawks couldn't get the running game going, so they turned to Russell Wilson and the passing game, which did just enough to win the game. Seattle is still a run-first offense and Lynch is still its top weapon as backup Robert Turbin received just three carries and Christine Michael didn't get on the field for a single snap.

Drop

Peyton Manning, QB, Denver - Obviously, he can't set a record every week, but he'll still put together a top-three season with the talent assembled around him on offense.

Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit - But not as far as you think. Bush fits perfectly in offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's scheme and will continue to catch a boatload of balls for a lot of yards as defenses key on Calvin Johnson. Bush just isn't likely to rush the ball 21 times a game.

Julius Thomas, TE, Denver - Manning knows how to keep multiple receivers happy, but Thomas will still be the fourth mouth to feed behind Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. He should be a solid red zone target, but don't expect many more 100-yard receiving days.

Continue to produce below expectations

Stevan Ridley, RB, New England - Following a second-quarter fumble, Ridley didn't get in on a single snap the rest of the game. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen showed he could carry the load in the Patriots' offense. The result could be a more-even split between the two backs than fantasy owners expected.

Montee Ball, RB, Denver - About the only bad thing to happen in Denver on Thursday night was the realization that Ball is not ready to take over the Broncos' running game. The coaching staff obviously trusts Knowshon Moreno to protect their quarterback more than the rookie or even second-year back Ronnie Hillman. Until Ball proves to coach John Fox that he can keep Manning standing, he's not going to see enough opportunities to get to his preseason draft level.

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami - Miller managed just 10 yards on 11 touches. That's not going to get it done. While backup Daniel Thomas wasn't much better - 19 yards on nine touches - fantasy owners were expecting Miller to grab the workhorse role and run with it. We're still waiting.

Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, New England - Quarterback Tom Brady targeted Thompkins 14 times, but he came up with just four receptions. That won't cut it in the world of Brady and coach Bill Belichick. Expect Brady to turn to his Welker clones, Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman.




Comments? Criticism? Applause? Contact Steve Schwarz at sschwarz@sportsnetwork.com.

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