Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
It's very hard to get a "bargain" in the first two rounds because so much is expected of a top-24 pick. Tennessee running back Chris Johnson, a No.10 pick in 2009, was a rare exception, combining for 2,509 yards from scrimmage and 16 scores. In fact, you're more likely to get a "bust" than a bargain.
Evaluating last year's RapidDraft ADP, 10 of the top-24 players could easily be classified as "disappointments" based on their draft positions. The list included Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Brian Westbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown and Reggie Bush.
Which leads us to this year's RapidDraft top-24 and the "most likely to disappoint."
If you look at this chart below, a handful of names jump out at you as being overpriced.
The first player that I noticed was Philadelphia running back LeSean McCoy. McCoy does not belong anywhere near the top-24 overall list and is only the 24th running back on the TSN position Rankings. Living in Philadelphia for most of my life and for all of coach Andy Reid's reign, there is little likelihood that McCoy will be worth a second-round selection. There are three factors which go into this point of view -- Reid's love for the pass, the coach's preference to spread the carries around and the addition of Mike Bell in the offseason.
Sidney Rice is the next candidate. Last week I wrote a piece titled "The Sidney Rice Dilemma" which outlined the problems with choosing Rice high in this year's draft despite his "monster" performance in 2009 (83 receptions, 1,312 yards, eight TDs). The abridged version says, his hip injury, the return to health of Bernard Berrian, the improvement of Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe and the questionable return of Brett Favre make him a high-risk, low- reward pick.
Reggie Wayne's name might surprise you, but I'm concerned about his ability to post great numbers for a seventh consecutive season. Sure, he caught 100 balls for 1,264 yards and 10 scores last season, but Peyton Manning didn't have many options last year. It was either Wayne, Dallas Clark or a bunch of untested youngsters.
However, it turns out those young guys, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, were pretty good. With a full year of on-field experience and the return of Anthony Gonzalez, Manning may spread the ball around a lot more than in 2009. Picking Wayne with an early second-round selection might be a riskier proposition than in the past.
The same problem could end up hurting the end-of-the-first-round selection Miles Austin. After doing very little over the first four weeks of the 2009 season, Austin dominated the receiver category the rest of the way. From Week 5 through Week 17, Austin collected 76 balls for 1,239 yards and 10 scores. But in 2010, with defenses now aware of his talent, quarterback Tony Romo may choose one of his other many talented receivers. With Jason Witten, rookie Dez Bryant, Roy Williams and a good receiver out of the backfield in Felix Jones, the Cowboys may spread the wealth more evenly in 2010, making Austin a tough selection at No.11. At best you figure to get "fair market value" and it could easily turn into disappointment.
Finally, there is the Jamaal Charles situation, which may not be worked out until after the season starts. Charles had a great second half of 2009, the second best of any running back down the stretch, and therefore many folks have selected him as a first-rounder in 2010. But the "fly in the ointment" is talented veteran running back Thomas Jones who arrived from the New York Jets in the offseason. Jones posted a career-high 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns last season in New York and figures to get plenty of playing time in Kansas City. If it is truly a "shared situation" it will be difficult for Charles to live up to an eighth-overall pick, particularly with Jones likely to get the goal line carries.
|RapidDraft ADP (8/13/10)