Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
Drafting a running back in each of the first two rounds means possibly missing out on the top six to eight receivers depending on where your pick falls.
There are plenty of options throughout the draft that can fill out your receiving corps adequately, but targeting players who are most likely to outperform their ADP by more than one round will be the key.
Below, I'll give you one receiver per round from rounds 4-8 who is most likely to do that.
(ADPs from fantasyfootballcalculator.com)
Round 4 - Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (40.6 ADP) - The last two seasons, Bowe has averaged 67.6 yards and 4.8 receptions per game. During that time, the players throwing Bowe the ball included Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn, Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton. Those four combined to complete just 58.7 percent of their passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt over the past two seasons. Bowe's new quarterback, Alex Smith, completed 64.3 percent of his passes and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt in that same time period. That, my friends, is what I call a major upgrade. Other receivers with fourth-round ADPs include Vincent Jackson, Danny Amendola, Marques Colston, Wes Welker and Reggie Wayne.
Round 5 - Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (49.9 ADP) - Hakeem Nicks (53.5 ADP) could be a WR1, but with Nicks' health in question -- he hasn't played a full season during his four-year career -- Garcon is more likely to outproduce his ADP among fifth-round receivers. Yes, Garcon struggled with a torn tendon in his foot last season, but he has shown "no signs" of the injury during training camp, according to the Washington Times. When healthy last season, Garcon showed strong chemistry with quarterback Robert Griffin III. In the seven games he was mostly healthy last year, he averaged 83.4 yards per game and had four touchdowns. That extrapolates to 1,334 yards and nine touchdowns over 16 games. Other fifth-round receivers include Torrey Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson and Antonio Brown.
Round 6 - Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (63.5 ADP) - As I've mentioned several times in my columns, most of Wes Welker's targets in this offense are likely to come from the 201 targets Brandon Stokley, Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen received in 2012. Decker already proved in 2012 that he can be highly productive without being heavily targeted; he accomplished his 2012 stats -- 85 receptions, 1,064 yards and 13 touchdowns -- on 7.7 targets per contest, and caught 11 of his 13 touchdowns inside the red zone. Welker is not a red zone threat, so Decker is a lock for 10 touchdowns in 2013 Throw in at least 900 receiving yards, and you have a receiver worthy of the fifth round or higher. The same isn't true for Mike Wallace (66.9 ADP), James Jones (68.9), Steve Smith (70.0) or T.Y. Hilton (71.8), as capable as those four players may be.
Round 7 - Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (78.9 ADP) - Only three receivers have ADPs in the seventh round -- Tavon Austin, Boldin and Cecil Shorts. Of those three, I like Boldin the most to outproduce his draft position. Last year's No. 1 receiver, Michael Crabtree, was targeted 9.4 times per game in Colin Kaepernick's 10 starts (including playoffs). Even if he doesn't completely replicate Crabtree's role in the offense, Boldin is guaranteed 8.5 targets from Kaepernick this season. That would be one more per game than he had with the Ravens in 2012.
Round 8 - Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (95.3 ADP) - Receivers with an eighth-round ADP include Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Stevie Johnson, Josh Gordon, Kenny Britt and Williams. Among those players, Williams, who emerged as both a big-play and a red-zone threat with a 15.8 yards-per-reception average and six touchdowns inside the 10-yard line last season, is most likely to outproduce his draft position. In three years as a professional, Williams has an 11-touchdown season and a nine-touchdown season under his belt.
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