Last season, Mark Teixeira batted an ugly .200 at the end of April with just three homers.
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For the past couple of days, I've been telling you who you should trade away at the mid-point of the 2010 baseball season based on their historical tendency to have bad second halves. Today, we tell you who you should be looking to get in the deal as they have a great second-half track record.
As always in statistical research, the more data you accumulate, the more reliable the results. Since Mark Teixeira has played eight seasons his "regularly scheduled" second-half splurge is more reliable than that of Asdrubal Cabrera, who has played just two full seasons as a starter.
We begin in the American League.
Of the 10 players listed who "explode" in the second half, just one is in the top-20 in slugging percentage (Robinson Cano) and two (Cano, Shin-Soo Choo) are currently in the top-20 in OPS. Their quick start could indicate a "career year." On the other hand, you won't get a "discount" when trying to obtain them because they are playing too well.
Instead, you should look for the struggling ballplayer, who will be inexpensive to deal for, but will make his usual "second-half charge" and play well above his current trade value.
Three players from the list "qualify" as struggling - Mark Teixeira, Carlos Quentin and Nick Markakis and should be targeted.
Teixeira (ADP 8.6) is well known as a slow starter, so you might not be able to get any discount on the Yankees' slugger. It was just last year that Teixeira was batting an ugly .200 at the end of April with just three homers and 10 RBI. As we all know, he exploded in May with the warmer weather and the return of Alex Rodriguez to the lineup and finished the year with 39 HR and 122 RBI.
Quentin (ADP 133.7) is off to a rough beginning, batting just .162 through his first 20 games. And the slump will probably continue as his worst months by slugging percentage are May and June. Come July, however, he always picks it up and you would be smart to obtain him as we come to the end of June. His OPS numbers for July through the end of the season never falls below .841.
Like Quentin, Markakis (ADP 57.3) is off to a slow start. He's hitting .263 with no homers and just three RBI. But he gets it going a little sooner than Quentin. Markakis' batting average begins to jump in the month on June (lifetime .316) and stays above the ".300 level" until September.
Selected AL Hitters - by Slugging Percentage Variation
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