NFL Preview - Kansas City (0-1) at Buffalo (0-1)
By Scott Garbarini, NFL Editor
(Sports Network) - The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs each came into the
2012 season steeped in optimism over their prospects, and both have gotten off
to undesired starts as well.
The Bills hope a return to the familiar confines of Ralph Stadium can enable
them to bounce back quickly from a brutal opening-week loss in Sunday's battle
with a Kansas City team that wants to put its most recent performance behind,
but probably hasn't forgotten its last encounter with its Week 2 opponent.
The Chiefs entered the 2011 campaign as defending champions in the AFC West
division, but resembled anything but a contender after beating soundly beaten
on their home turf by a focused Buffalo squad in last year's lid-lifter. The
41-7 blitzing by the Bills wasn't only Kansas City's worst defeat in an opener
in franchise history, it triggered an 0-3 start that contributed to the club
missing out on a repeat division title and ultimately led to the in-season
dismissal of head coach Todd Haley.
That loss was painful in more ways than one, as standout safety Eric Berry
sustained a torn ACL after being blocked low but legally by Buffalo wide
receiver Stevie Johnson. One week later, playmaking running back Jamaal
Charles blew out his knee in a lopsided setback at Detroit, further sending
the Chiefs' season in disarray.
Both players have since healed and were on the field for Kansas City's Week 1
home tilt against Atlanta, with Charles demonstrating his recovery by rushing
for 87 yards on 16 carries. The Chiefs were minus several other key regulars
on defense, however, and the depleted unit was no match for Matt Ryan and the
Falcons' assortment of playmakers as Atlanta cruised to a 40-24 triumph.
Kansas City competed in that contest without four defensive starters, most
notably All-Pro pass rusher Tamba Hali (suspension) and top cornerback Brandon
Flowers (heel). Hali is done serving a one-game penalty for a substance-abuse
violation and will be available for Sunday's tilt, while Flowers appears on
track to participate as well.
"Having two of the better guys on your team on defense right now, it helps,
it?s going to help out on Sunday," said Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson. "As
long as we play team defense it'll work out fine. If we don't play team
defense, it doesn't matter who we get back."
Ryan threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns against a Kansas City secondary
that was also without free safety Kendrick Lewis, who's likely to sit out a
second straight week with a troublesome shoulder.
The Bills were hit hard by the injury bug in their first outing as well, with
running back Fred Jackson and slot receiver David Nelson both hurting their
knees in last Sunday's road loss to Buffalo's AFC East cohorts, the New York
Jets. Nelson, the team's second-leading receiver in 2011, is done for the year
with an ACL tear, while Jackson will miss a minimum of three weeks with a
significant sprain.
Jackson's absence shouldn't be all that serious a blow, as replacement C.J.
Spiller ripped off a 56-yard touchdown run en route to a career-high 169 yards
on only 14 attempts against the Jets. His display was about the only bright
spot, however, in a 48-28 loss in which Buffalo was littered with miscues and
breakdowns in all phases of the game.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions that were converted
into 21 points, while a presumably upgraded Buffalo defense couldn't stop the
Jets on third down and the special teams crew gave up a 68-yard punt return
score to New York's Jeremy Kerley.
"We made too many mistakes to win a game like that," Bills head coach Chan
Gailey stated. "You can't make mistakes and win games like that."
Fitzpatrick has now been picked off 12 times over his last five games dating
back to last season, but was terrific in Buffalo's rout at Arrowhead Stadium
the previous September. The Harvard-educated field general matched a personal-
best with four touchdown throws without an interception and amassed 208 yards
on a sharp 17-of-25 passing.
SERIES HISTORY
Bills lead 22-17-1
Last Meeting: Bills 41, Chiefs 7 (Sept. 11, 2011 at Kansas City)
Last Meeting at Site: Bills 14, Chiefs 3 (Nov. 13, 2005 at Buffalo)
Chiefs HC Romeo Crennel vs. Bills: 2-0 overall, 0-0 with Kansas City
Bills HC Chan Gailey vs. Chiefs: 1-2 overall, 1-1 with Buffalo
Crennel vs. Gailey Head-to-Head: First Meeting
Notes: Bills have prevailed in four of the last five encounters between the
clubs, with the Chiefs' lone victory over that span a 13-10 overtime verdict
at Arrowhead Stadium during Week 8 of the 2010 season. Kansas City has lost in
five straight trips to Buffalo, which includes a 37-14 defeat in a 1991 AFC
Divisional Playoff and a 30-13 setback in the 1993 AFC Championship, since
earning a 20-17 decision at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sept. 28, 1986. Teams also
met in the 1966 AFL Championship, a 31-7 road win by the Chiefs. Gailey served
as Kansas City's offensive coordinator in 2008 and lost to the Chiefs in 1998
while then head coach of Dallas. Crennel beat the Bills while in charge of
Cleveland in both 2007 and 2008.
BY THE NUMBERS
Offensive Team Rankings
Kansas City: 7th overall (393.0 ypg), 5th rushing (152.0 ypg), 18th passing
(241.0 ypg), tied 14th scoring (24.0 ppg)
Buffalo: tied 8th overall (390.0 ypg), 1st rushing (195.0 ypg), 25th passing
(195.0 ypg), 11th scoring (28.0 ppg)
Defensive Team Rankings
Kansas City: 20th overall (376.0 ypg), 15th rushing (84.0 ypg), 25th passing
(292.0 ypg), tied 28th scoring (40.0 ppg)
Buffalo: 22nd overall (384.0 ypg), 21st rushing (118.0 ypg), tied 19th passing
(266.0 ypg), 32nd scoring (48.0 ppg)
Turnover Margin
Kansas City: -3 (0 takeaways, 3 giveaways)
Buffalo: -3 (1 takeaway, 4 giveaways)
Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (offense)
Kansas City: 100.0 percent (2 possessions, 2 TD, 0 FG) -- tied 1st overall
Buffalo: 100.0 percent (2 possessions, 2 TD, 0 FG) -- tied 1st overall
Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (defense)
Kansas City: 57.1 percent (7 possessions, 4 TD, 3 FG) -- 20th overall
Buffalo: 60.0 percent (5 possessions, 3 TD, 2 FG) -- tied 21st overall
WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL
Coordinator Brian Daboll's goal is to keep the Bills guessing with an offense
that can achieve very good balance when at its best. The speedy Charles (87
rushing yards last week) and powerful Peyton Hillis (16 rushing yards, 3
receptions) give the team a formidable inside/outside combo of backs that both
have notched 1,000-yard seasons during their careers, and the duo helped the
Chiefs compile 152 rushing yards in last week's loss. Kansas City also sports
a high-caliber No. 1 receiver in big target Dwayne Bowe (3 receptions) and a
couple of capable downfield complements in veteran wideout Steve Breaston and
tight end Kevin Boss, an offseason pickup formerly of the Raiders who hauled
in a 22-yard touchdown pass in his Chiefs' debut. The x-factor to it all is
quarterback Matt Cassel (258 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), who's been generally
solid in Kansas City wins and maddeningly erratic in losses over the course of
his four-year tenure with the team. He was more the latter in tossing two
picks and losing a fumble during the second half of last Sunday's test, with
the turnovers allowing the Falcons to pull away. Bowe was held mostly in check
by Atlanta's quality cornerbacks in the opener, but shifty slot receiver
Dexter McCluster had an impact in recording 82 yards on six catches. The
converted running back could play an important role in this week's matchup as
well.
Buffalo's defensive showing against the Jets was disappointing to say the
least, as a highly touted front line supposedly bolstered by the free-agent
additions of ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson generated next to no
pressure on quarterback Mark Sanchez, who wasn't sacked once and had easy
pickings for the most part in a three-touchdown day. The line's inability to
bring the heat permitted New York to make good on 71 percent (10-of-14) of its
third-down chances for the game and put together three touchdown drives of 80
yards or more. Rookie cornerback Stephon Gilmore (5 tackles) and nickel
specialist Leodis McKelvin (3 tackles) were left particularly vulnerable by
the failures up front, and both could have their hands full with Bowe and
McCluster this week if the same scenario unfolds. The run defense, a major
problem area for the Bills last season, was reasonably good in the team's
first effort under a new 4-3 arrangement, with reliable linebacker Nick
Barnett (9 tackles), strongside starter Arthur Moats (6 tackles) and tackle
Kyle Williams (3 tackles) heading up a group that held the Jets to a modest
3.3 yards per attempt.
WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL
The one silver lining that could come out of last week's loss was the extended
opportunity Jackson's injury opens up for Spiller (169 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2
receptions), a greater home-run threat than his steady backfield mate who
showed off the big-play skills that made him the ninth overall pick of the
2010 draft. The dangerous 25-year-old is a good receiver as well who added a
30-yard catch in Week 1, but how he'll hold up under a big workload is a bit
of a concern, as he's never had more than 19 carries in a game in the pros and
the options are lacking behind him with Jackson sidelined. Depth could also be
a big problem among the wide receiver corps with the valued Nelson out for the
season, as Stevie Johnson (4 receptions, 1 TD) now stands as the team's lone
proven commodity at the position and the only true field-stretcher in the
group is raw rookie T.J. Graham, who was a healthy inactive in the opener.
Tight end Scott Chandler (4 receptions, 1 TD) can be a weapon, however,
especially in the red zone where his 6-foot-7 frame helped him produce six
touchdown catches a year ago. Two of those scores came against the Chiefs.
Fitzpatrick (195 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT), who's now totaled a league-high 26
interceptions in 16 games since last year's triumph over Kansas City, needs to
make better decisions as well for the offense to maximize its strengths.
The unavailability of both Hali, who's tallied 26 1/2 sacks over the past two
years, and Flowers for last Sunday's contest was too much for Kansas City to
overcome against Atlanta's potent passing game, but the defense should be far
tougher to throw on this week with those two back in the fold. Hali will again
team with second-year riser Justin Houston, the owner of 6 1/2 sacks over a
six-game stretch dating back to his rookie year, to provide the unit with a
strong pair of bookends coming off the edge, while Flowers and veteran
Stanford Routt form a pretty sound corner duo that will focused on keeping
Stevie Johnson at bay. Preventing Spiller from doing considerable damage in
the open field might be the No. 1 priority for head coach Romeo Crennel,
however, a task that might be assigned to the rangy Berry from the back end
with help from Derrick Johnson (8 tackles), a 2011 All-Pro selection with a
definite nose for the football. Seasoned pro Abram Elam (5 tackles) will
likely man Lewis' customary spot at free safety for another week, while the
line hopes to get some reinforcements from the possible returns of nose tackle
Anthony Toribio and nickel rusher Allen Bailey after both sat out last week
with ankle injuries.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
In a game where both starting quarterbacks have had their share of shaky
moments over the past year, the winner could come down to which team sports
the lesser of two potential liabilities. Based on recent results, the nod goes
to Cassel, who also benefits from what seems to be a better supporting cast on
offense. The fact that the Chiefs will be healthier than a week ago and the
Bills will not also could work in Kansas City's favor, and the revenge factor
shouldn't be dismissed either. Look for Buffalo to make enough plays on both
ends to have a chance to prevail, but the Chiefs to control much of the action
with a superior defense and wider range of playmakers.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Chiefs 24, Bills 20
09/14 08:31:09 ET

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